fix(smoke): derive the clipboard assertion from what pi declares

v1.10.0's first tag build (run 704) failed on ONE assertion out of 104, and
published nothing. The assertion was wrong, not the image.

scripts/smoke-test.sh required @mariozechner/clipboard to be installed and
require()-able at every install site, failing hard when the family was absent.
pi 0.86.0 (#9163) "Replaced the external native clipboard dependency with
bundled asynchronous macOS, Windows, and X11 helpers while preserving platform
command and OSC 52 fallbacks". Measured in the published tarballs rather than
inferred from the changelog:

  pi 0.85.1 -> dependencies include @mariozechner/clipboard@0.3.9
  pi 0.87.1 -> no @mariozechner/* at all
  pi 1.0.0  -> no @mariozechner/* at all

So on a correct v1.10.0 image the package is legitimately gone, `if [ -z
"$sites" ]; then exit 1` fired, and both smoke jobs went red on the same line:
smoke 100 passed/1 failed, smoke-studio 103 passed/1 failed with every
studio-specific assertion green. build-variant, build-variant-studio,
promote-base-latest and update-description all skipped -> nothing published.
The gate worked; it was enforcing pi 0.85.1's dependency graph.

The guard is NOT deleted, because its "fail when absent" shape is the thing
that stops prune_foreign_natives() from deleting the binding instead of the
surplus platform copies. It now derives the expectation from what the image's
pi actually DECLARES:

  declares + install loads     -> pass
  declares + no install        -> FAIL (prune removed function)
  does not declare + no install-> pass (pi bundles it since 0.86.0)
  does not declare + install   -> FAIL (orphan nothing depends on)

That re-arms automatically if a future pi re-adds the dependency, which a
skip-if-absent would not.

Verified as that four-quadrant truth table on EXIT CODES, not messages, since
run() keys on status: rc=0/1/0/1 as listed. The final check extracted the
command string verbatim from the committed file and ran it through `sh -c` the
way run() does, so the escaping was tested as shipped rather than as drafted.

Gates: doc-drift 23 OK / 0 DRIFT; base-hash, workflow-shell, skill-floor,
lint-shell all rc=0. smoke-test.sh is not a base-hash input, so the base layer
does not rebuild.

CHANGELOG.md

@@ -209,6 +209,38 @@ jump, four new base packages and a new mailbox feature. The release carrying a
 
 ### Fixed
 
+- **The smoke suite asserted a pi dependency that upstream deleted, and it cost
+  this release its first tag build** — `scripts/smoke-test.sh` required
+  `@mariozechner/clipboard` to be installed and `require()`-able at every install
+  site. pi **0.86.0** (`#9163`) *"Replaced the external native clipboard
+  dependency with bundled asynchronous macOS, Windows, and X11 helpers while
+  preserving platform command and OSC 52 fallbacks"*. Measured in the published
+  tarballs: pi `0.85.1` declares `@mariozechner/clipboard@0.3.9`; `0.87.1` and
+  `1.0.0` declare no `@mariozechner/*` at all. So on a correct v1.10.0 image the
+  package is legitimately absent, the assertion's `if [ -z "$sites" ]; then exit
+  1` fired, and run 704 ended **100 passed / 1 failed** on `smoke` and **103
+  passed / 1 failed** on `smoke-studio` — same single assertion, every
+  studio-specific check green. `build-variant`, `build-variant-studio`,
+  `promote-base-latest` and `update-description` were all skipped, so **nothing
+  was published**: the gate behaved exactly as designed, against a stale
+  expectation rather than a real defect.
+
+  The fix does not delete the guard, because the guard was right: "fail when the
+  family is absent" is what stops `prune_foreign_natives()` from silently
+  deleting the binding instead of the surplus platform copies. It now **derives
+  its expectation from what the image's pi actually declares** — if pi declares
+  the dependency an install must exist and load; if pi does not, no install may
+  linger. That re-arms by itself should a future pi re-add it, and it still
+  catches an orphaned install. Verified as a four-quadrant truth table with the
+  command string extracted verbatim from the file and run through `sh -c` the way
+  `run()` invokes it: declared+present → rc=0, declared+absent → rc=1,
+  undeclared+absent → rc=0, undeclared+present → rc=1.
+
+  Worth stating plainly, since it is the whole value of the round: pi 1.0.0,
+  pi-atelier v0.13.0 and pi-studio v0.9.61 passed **103 of 104** assertions on a
+  pi MAJOR bump. The one red was the suite describing pi 0.85.1's dependency
+  graph, not the image.
+
 - **`git push` from inside the container dies on a read-only ControlPath, and no
   amount of documentation was fixing it** — `entrypoint-user.sh` now sets
   `core.sshCommand` to `ssh -F $HOME/.ssh-local/config` when that sidecar exists.

scripts/smoke-test.sh

@@ -30,7 +30,7 @@
 #     client bundle present + registered via `pi install`
 #   - no foreign npm-11 platform packages (@esbuild, clipboard) beyond the host
 #   - no build-time npm cache (/root/.npm) shipped in the image
-#   - esbuild compiles + clipboard native loads at every install site
+#   - esbuild compiles everywhere; clipboard present iff pi declares it
 #   - image size within threshold
 
 set -euo pipefail
@@ -986,11 +986,27 @@ run "no build-time npm cache shipped (/root/.npm)" \
 run "esbuild works at every install site (prune removed weight, not function)" \
   'sites=$(find /usr/lib/node_modules /opt -type d -path "*/node_modules/esbuild" -prune 2>/dev/null); if [ -z "$sites" ]; then echo "no esbuild install found at all" >&2; exit 1; fi; for d in $sites; do node -e "require(\"$d\").transformSync(\"const x:number=1\",{loader:\"ts\"})" || { echo "esbuild broken at $d" >&2; exit 1; }; done; echo ok'
 
-# Clipboard is the family pruned second, and its napi-rs loader picks its native
-# binding at require() time — so a successful load IS the proof that the kept
-# platform package is the one this image needs.
-run "clipboard native loads at every install site" \
-  'sites=$(find /usr/lib/node_modules /opt -type d -path "*/node_modules/@mariozechner/clipboard" -prune 2>/dev/null); if [ -z "$sites" ]; then echo "no @mariozechner/clipboard install found at all" >&2; exit 1; fi; for d in $sites; do node -e "var c=require(\"$d\"); if (typeof c.setText !== \"function\") { throw new Error(\"native binding missing\"); }" || { echo "clipboard native broken at $d" >&2; exit 1; }; done; echo ok'
+# Clipboard is the family pruned second. Upstream pi 0.86.0 (#9163) REPLACED the
+# external `@mariozechner/clipboard` dependency with bundled macOS/Windows/X11
+# helpers plus the OSC 52 fallback, so from 0.86.0 on there is nothing external to
+# prune and nothing to require(). pi 0.85.1 declared it; 0.87.1 and 1.0.0 do not.
+# This assertion therefore derives its expectation from what the image's pi
+# actually DECLARES rather than hardcoding either state: it re-arms by itself if a
+# future pi re-adds the dependency, and it still fails if an install lingers that
+# nothing depends on. Hardcoding "must exist" is what failed the v1.10.0 tag build
+# (100 passed, 1 failed, nothing published) against a perfectly correct image.
+run "clipboard native: present iff pi declares it (prune removed weight, not function)" \
+  'PKG=/usr/lib/node_modules/@earendil-works/pi-coding-agent/package.json;
+   if grep -q "\"@mariozechner/clipboard\"" "$PKG" 2>/dev/null; then declared=yes; else declared=no; fi;
+   sites=$(find /usr/lib/node_modules /opt -type d -path "*/node_modules/@mariozechner/clipboard" -prune 2>/dev/null);
+   if [ "$declared" = yes ]; then
+     [ -n "$sites" ] || { echo "pi declares @mariozechner/clipboard but NO install found - prune removed function" >&2; exit 1; };
+     for d in $sites; do node -e "var c=require(\"$d\"); if (typeof c.setText !== \"function\") { throw new Error(\"native binding missing\"); }" || { echo "clipboard native broken at $d" >&2; exit 1; }; done;
+     echo "ok: pi declares it and the native binding loads at every site";
+   else
+     [ -z "$sites" ] || { echo "pi no longer declares @mariozechner/clipboard yet installs remain: $sites" >&2; exit 1; };
+     echo "ok: pi bundles clipboard since upstream 0.86.0 (#9163); no external install expected";
+   fi'
 
 # ── Image size ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
 echo ""